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The New Reality of Market Cycles & Lending Strategy with Gil Figueroa Part 1 #955
In this episode of The Norris Group Real Estate Podcast, Bruce Norris is joined by Gil Figueroa, President of First Commercial Capital, for an in-depth discussion on commercial lending, interest rate cycles, and the evolving dynamics of today’s real estate market. The conversation explores how historical market patterns, investor behavior, and macroeconomic forces intersect to influence both residential and commercial real estate performance. Bruce and Gil break down key misconceptions around interest rates, explaining why rate movements alone do not determine property values, and how broader affordability and market psychology play a critical role.
They also dive into Gil’s transition from residential lending to commercial real estate ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, highlighting the risks of loose underwriting standards and the importance of disciplined lending practices. The episode provides valuable insight into how commercial deals are structured today, including cap rates, debt service coverage, loan products, and refinancing challenges in a higher-rate environment. Additionally, the discussion touches on current market conditions, including the “extend and pretend” strategy used by lenders, distressed opportunities emerging in select markets, and why California has yet to see deep discounts compared to other regions.
Gil Figueroa is the President of First Commercial Capital, where he specializes in the origination, underwriting, and closing of multifamily and commercial real estate loans. With over three decades of experience as a licensed Real Estate Broker since 1993, Gil brings deep industry expertise and a comprehensive understanding of the apartment lending, commercial real estate, and mortgage sectors. He is also a seasoned financial analyst and wealth strategist, working with high-net-worth individuals to develop practical investment strategies aligned with long-term financial and retirement goals.
In this episode:
– Bruce welcomes Gil Figueroa, President of First Commercial Capital.
– Gil shares his 30+ years of experience in commercial and multifamily lending.
-Bruce explains how a unique VA property deal led him to study real estate cycles.
-Why interest rates alone don’t determine housing prices.
-How the 10-year Treasury helps forecast market direction.
-The role of human behavior (fear and greed) in market cycles.
-Gil discusses Elliott Wave analysis and its impact on his forecasting.
-Lessons from the 2007–2008 housing crash and risky lending practices.
-Why Gil exited residential lending and shifted to commercial real estate.
-Key differences between residential and commercial loan structures.
-How rising interest rates impact cap rates and property valuations.
-Why affordability is shaping today’s real estate market.
-The “lock-in effect” of low mortgage rates on homeowners.
-Overview of commercial loan types and refinancing challenges.
-Why some investors avoided long-term fixed loans before rates increased.
-The “extend and pretend” strategy lenders are using today.
-Emerging distressed opportunities in select real estate markets.
The Norris Group originates and services loans in California and Florida under California DRE License 01219911, Florida Mortgage Lender License 1577, and NMLS License 1623669. For more information on hard money lending, go learn.thenorrisgroup.com and click the Hard Money tab.
This is our weekly radio broadcast. We recorded the show last week and will be featuring him on the radio show starting today. You can view the transcription and full broadcast here.